Hello everyone. We're entering mid August which is the start of the most active portion of the Atlantic hurricane season. As of early on August 10th, a disturbance near the Cape Verde islands off the west coast of Africa is strating to churn westward. Some computer models develop this feature into the first named storm of the season. That will be Anna.
The GFS computer model from late on August 9th takes this system across the ocean and makes it a threat to the United States the weekend of Aug 22 and 23. Throughout the last several years, the GFS model makes most every disturbance a hurricane and moves them in a pattern that puts the US at risk. While that means there is no need for undo alarm now, we should pay attention to this disturbance. It has to survive a long trip over the ocean and with El Nino kicking up, this disturbance will likely encounter some hostile upper winds along the journey.
Should it strengthen to a point to overcome any upper winds that attempt to strangle it, then we could be having something to watch closely late next week.
If you are wondering about why this season is taking so long to get started, it could be the development of El Nino. That is a warming of a band of ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. This warmer water causes more storms to form over the Pacific, which causes more upper winds to leave these storms and blow over the Atlantic. Atlantic tropical system do not favor these strong upper winds, called wind shear. Wind shear prevents Atlantic storms from holding together in a pattern that can begin to swirl into a hurricane.
If you have any questions about hurricanes, please add them to this blog.
Phillip Williams
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