Hello everyone! February 2nd is Groundhog Day. The original groundhog is Punxetawney Phil in Pennsylvania. The saying is if he sees his shadow then there will be 6 more weeks of winter, but if he doesn't, then there will be an early spring. While the ground hog coming out of his home has been commercially co opted for years, there was once a tad bit of actual science behind this. The male groundhog comes out of his burrow in late winter to decide if it is time to find a mate. Sunny, winter days in Pennsylvania are usually associated with cold high pressure and could be a sign that winter isn't over yet. Cloudy weather could be a sign that southern systems are pumping moisture northward into Pennsylvania and thus an early spring would be more likely. It is crucial to the survival of the groundhog young that the male groundhog make the right decision. If his young are born too soon, they would not be able to find enough food before spring growing. If his young are born too late, they would have a tough time finding enough to eat and surviving spring time predators.
Also, if you haven't seen the movie Groundhog Day, check it out. It stars Bill Murray as a meteorologist named Phil who works on channel 9. The graphic artist who made the weather map background for the movie also made the base country and state backgrounds for me. They looked very similar. Obviously, I get a kick out of seeing them in the movie.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Monday, November 9, 2009
Flooding Rains Possible from Ida/Nor'easter
Hello everyone! Hurricane season runs through November and while we have never had a major hurricane in November here, we have had rains from storms in the Gulf and we will have that again this week. (Nov. 10-12)
Ida came ashore on the Gulf Coast during the early morning hours of Tuesday, the 10th. Rain will spread northeastward over us during the day. The GFS computer model is showing several inches of rain over us through Thursday. The heaviest rain will be Wednesday through early Thursday. Flooding is a definite possibility.
If you live in a flood prone area, stay tuned to the National Weather Service for updates.
Ida will ingest some cooler air and transition into a Nor'easter type of system along the Southeastern US coast. We will have windy weather with northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph during Veteran's Day. Sheets of rain will fall.
One thing to hang hope on is that the NAM computer model is much less aggressive with the rain and wind. I'm leaning toward the GFS, however, as it has been consistent with this forecast for some time.
Stay dry and warm the next few days.
Phillip Williams
Ps...I will have forecast updates on PittCountyLife.com each morning this week.
Ida came ashore on the Gulf Coast during the early morning hours of Tuesday, the 10th. Rain will spread northeastward over us during the day. The GFS computer model is showing several inches of rain over us through Thursday. The heaviest rain will be Wednesday through early Thursday. Flooding is a definite possibility.
If you live in a flood prone area, stay tuned to the National Weather Service for updates.
Ida will ingest some cooler air and transition into a Nor'easter type of system along the Southeastern US coast. We will have windy weather with northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph during Veteran's Day. Sheets of rain will fall.
One thing to hang hope on is that the NAM computer model is much less aggressive with the rain and wind. I'm leaning toward the GFS, however, as it has been consistent with this forecast for some time.
Stay dry and warm the next few days.
Phillip Williams
Ps...I will have forecast updates on PittCountyLife.com each morning this week.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
School's Back In Session
Hello everyone. For those that live in Greenville, you know that ECU is back in full swing. The uptick in traffic is tremendous. I was on Greenville Blvd Saturday, Aug 22 as the storm came into the area. Being stuck in traffic as the winds pick up isn't an easy feeling. I was able to get home just as the rain began to fall. I then grabbed my camera and took some pictures. I posted them on www.PittCountyLife.com. I will leave the link to them there for a few days.
For the younger students and as a memory refresher to the rest of us, I posted the song "Old McDonald Had A Farm" on the website. That will be there until I find something else I want to post. If you ever find something I can link to that would be appropriate for the time, let me know. You can email me at info@PittCountyLife.com.
ECU Students, welcome back to Greenville! We may complain about the extra traffic, but we are glad you are here. Go Pirates!!
For the younger students and as a memory refresher to the rest of us, I posted the song "Old McDonald Had A Farm" on the website. That will be there until I find something else I want to post. If you ever find something I can link to that would be appropriate for the time, let me know. You can email me at info@PittCountyLife.com.
ECU Students, welcome back to Greenville! We may complain about the extra traffic, but we are glad you are here. Go Pirates!!
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Hurricane Bill Forecast
It is early on August 18th. Hurricane Bill is currently a category 2 hurricane churning in the central Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center forecast is for Bill to move west-northwest and then curve more northward within 5 days. The official track takes Bill between North Carolina and Bermuda. This track would only produce high waves along the coast, but there would be no actual weather affect here. All computer models keep Bill off our shore at this time. Of course, that could change, but I haven't ever seen a shift that large given the upcoming weather patterns.
A large trough of low pressure is forecast by all models to move into the Eastern US over the next few days. This will be the guiding force to curve Bill northward off the coast. This is a very large trough and is shown by all models, so confidence is high.
It is always good to be prepared for a hurricane. That means having food that can last and having a way to prepare it without electricity. Think of how you would survive without electricity or a way of travel out of your area. Think of drinking water, medicines, food, baby needs if appropriate, hygene, and comfort.
Hurricane Season ends November 30th!
Take care,
Phillip Williams
A large trough of low pressure is forecast by all models to move into the Eastern US over the next few days. This will be the guiding force to curve Bill northward off the coast. This is a very large trough and is shown by all models, so confidence is high.
It is always good to be prepared for a hurricane. That means having food that can last and having a way to prepare it without electricity. Think of how you would survive without electricity or a way of travel out of your area. Think of drinking water, medicines, food, baby needs if appropriate, hygene, and comfort.
Hurricane Season ends November 30th!
Take care,
Phillip Williams
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Hurricane Season About to Crank Up
Hello everyone. We're entering mid August which is the start of the most active portion of the Atlantic hurricane season. As of early on August 10th, a disturbance near the Cape Verde islands off the west coast of Africa is strating to churn westward. Some computer models develop this feature into the first named storm of the season. That will be Anna.
The GFS computer model from late on August 9th takes this system across the ocean and makes it a threat to the United States the weekend of Aug 22 and 23. Throughout the last several years, the GFS model makes most every disturbance a hurricane and moves them in a pattern that puts the US at risk. While that means there is no need for undo alarm now, we should pay attention to this disturbance. It has to survive a long trip over the ocean and with El Nino kicking up, this disturbance will likely encounter some hostile upper winds along the journey.
Should it strengthen to a point to overcome any upper winds that attempt to strangle it, then we could be having something to watch closely late next week.
If you are wondering about why this season is taking so long to get started, it could be the development of El Nino. That is a warming of a band of ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. This warmer water causes more storms to form over the Pacific, which causes more upper winds to leave these storms and blow over the Atlantic. Atlantic tropical system do not favor these strong upper winds, called wind shear. Wind shear prevents Atlantic storms from holding together in a pattern that can begin to swirl into a hurricane.
If you have any questions about hurricanes, please add them to this blog.
Phillip Williams
The GFS computer model from late on August 9th takes this system across the ocean and makes it a threat to the United States the weekend of Aug 22 and 23. Throughout the last several years, the GFS model makes most every disturbance a hurricane and moves them in a pattern that puts the US at risk. While that means there is no need for undo alarm now, we should pay attention to this disturbance. It has to survive a long trip over the ocean and with El Nino kicking up, this disturbance will likely encounter some hostile upper winds along the journey.
Should it strengthen to a point to overcome any upper winds that attempt to strangle it, then we could be having something to watch closely late next week.
If you are wondering about why this season is taking so long to get started, it could be the development of El Nino. That is a warming of a band of ocean current in the Pacific Ocean. This warmer water causes more storms to form over the Pacific, which causes more upper winds to leave these storms and blow over the Atlantic. Atlantic tropical system do not favor these strong upper winds, called wind shear. Wind shear prevents Atlantic storms from holding together in a pattern that can begin to swirl into a hurricane.
If you have any questions about hurricanes, please add them to this blog.
Phillip Williams
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Late Start to Hurricane Season
Hurricane Season is usually cranking by now, but there have been late starting seasons that turned into doozies. The folks in South Florida remember a late starting season that was devasting for them. Ever heard of Hurricane Andrew? That storm was the first named storm of the 1992 Hurricane Season.
The early morning hours of August 24, 1992 a small, but fierce category 5 hurricane Andrew ripped through Homestead, Florida. Go to the National Hurricane Center website to learn about past storms that hit North Carolina like Hazel, Donna, Connie, Edna, Fran, Floyd, and Isabel to name a few.
North Carolina is most vulnerable to a hurricane strike in August, September, and October. September has more hurricane landfalls in our state than any other month, so the season may be late getting started this year, but the prime time has yet to arrive. Check out my Tropical Weather Center links to keep tabs on this year's storms.
The early morning hours of August 24, 1992 a small, but fierce category 5 hurricane Andrew ripped through Homestead, Florida. Go to the National Hurricane Center website to learn about past storms that hit North Carolina like Hazel, Donna, Connie, Edna, Fran, Floyd, and Isabel to name a few.
North Carolina is most vulnerable to a hurricane strike in August, September, and October. September has more hurricane landfalls in our state than any other month, so the season may be late getting started this year, but the prime time has yet to arrive. Check out my Tropical Weather Center links to keep tabs on this year's storms.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Summer Fog
Hello everyone. It is a rainy Monday in July and this could lead to some fog overnight. Did you know that September has the most foggy nights of any month in our area? There is a good reason for that. As humid summer air lingers, the nights are getting longer by September so the air has longer to cool overnight. The cooling of the humid air squeezes out (condences) the moisture out of the air to give us a heavy dew and fog.
For this Monday night in July, the air will be very humid following rain. While the night isn't as long as it is later in the year, it will start out cooler because of the rain cooled air. This will give us a chance of fog. If the summer sky clears overnight, the chance of fog will increase. Yes, increase. A clear sky above allows the air near the ground to cool more as heat radiates upward away from earth. The more the air cools, the better chance for moisture condensing out into fog.
Expect some early morning fog Tuesday morning unless clouds continue over the area.
Phillip Williams
For this Monday night in July, the air will be very humid following rain. While the night isn't as long as it is later in the year, it will start out cooler because of the rain cooled air. This will give us a chance of fog. If the summer sky clears overnight, the chance of fog will increase. Yes, increase. A clear sky above allows the air near the ground to cool more as heat radiates upward away from earth. The more the air cools, the better chance for moisture condensing out into fog.
Expect some early morning fog Tuesday morning unless clouds continue over the area.
Phillip Williams
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